How to help
slow the college
enrollment decline

The college enrollment decline has seen more than a million fewer students go to college since the start of the pandemic. For those looking at college enrollment trends, it's proving to be an alarming year. Fewer traditional college-age students are attending college, with many choosing to take jobs instead. Low enrollment is presenting a challenge for the higher education industry, with several longstanding institutions closing.

Historically, college enrollment has increased year over year. In 2016, 70% of high school graduates enrolled in higher education institutions. Those numbers started to slip, and by 2020, just 63% of high school graduates were heading to college.

According to estimates from the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center (NSCRC), the 2022 college enrollment trends have not improved. Enrollment rates dropped 4.1% between spring 2021 and 2022. While both public and private institutions experienced college enrollment decline, public institutions were harder hit. Community colleges accounted for more than half of public losses. Other 2022 college enrollment trends include:

• Full-time numbers fell 3.8%, while part-time student rates dropped 4.5%
• Female college enrollment rates decreased 4.6%
• Enrollment of students aged over 24 years fell 5.8%

There are various reasons for the college enrollment decline, many of which show the impact the COVID-19 pandemic had on the nation's schools and students, although some are more complex.

Higher education had already been expecting a drop in enrollment, bracing for what it called a "demographic cliff" between 2025 and 2026. Those expectations were based on demographic data; the birth rate in the U.S. began dropping in 2007, around the time of the Great Recession. Fewer babies since 2007 mean fewer potential college freshmen in 2025 and beyond. Colleges and universities had already begun preparing for that, but the COVID-19 pandemic appears to have helped accelerate the college enrollment decline.

It's no secret that the pandemic was difficult for K-12 students, according to Brookings. Students learned less, were absent more and performed poorly on standardized tests. Pre-existing disparities seem to have widened according to the Department of Education Office for Civil Rights. Both states and schools also reduced their standards for student work during the pandemic, and while this policy may have boosted graduation rates, it didn't necessarily translate to college acceptance for the same group of students.

Students who struggled with school during the pandemic may well have decided it would be more productive to work than to continue struggling in school. During the "Great Resignation" of 2021, more jobs became available, and companies scrambled to fill roles. For students who weren't successful in online classes and who didn't want to deal with more of the same, such job opportunities may have seemed tantalizing. For those whose families struggled with finances, these jobs became closer to a necessity. The NSCRC found "unprecedented" college enrollment declines for students from high-poverty and low-income areas.

Recently, there has been a cultural backlash against higher education. Students are less inclined to go to college, many suggesting they don't need a degree. In fact, a recent survey found that only 32% of adults who said they intended to enroll, and felt college would be worth the cost, actually followed up and enrolled in a program.

Research has long shown that higher education is a predictor of success, both for individuals and for society as a whole. Those with college degrees earn more, are more likely to remain employed, pay more in taxes, volunteer more frequently, vote in elections and donate nearly 3.5 times more to charity than those who don't hold a college degree.

A high school student might not feel they'll use their college degree, but the experience of higher education may benefit them and their community throughout their lives.

While both demographics and the economy show that the college enrollment decline isn't something colleges can control, higher education can take measures to slow it. Technology, in particular—when it's taught and when it's used by administration to reach out to potential and existing students—can help bring students back to school.

With traditional college-aged populations dwindling, colleges and universities may find themselves looking at a different group of potential students: adult learners. Adult learners are busy, often juggling jobs and families while returning to school. Those students will need strong online programs that allow them to engage with faculty, take classes at night and on the weekends, and complete coursework when they have the time. Interestingly, when states experienced growth in 2022 enrollment figures, it as through primarily online institutions according to NSCRC.

It's not just academic tools that need to go online. College support services need to be easily accessible for students as well. Some schools are trying to slow the college enrollment decline by preventing dropouts, proactively reaching out to struggling students. Apps can help staff and administrators reach out to students and offer support so that students stay in school and get their degrees.

One bright spot among the 2022 college enrollment trends and in previous years is in computer science programs. While most majors and academic programs saw significant drops in enrollment according to NSCRC, that wasn't the case across the board. Undergraduate enrollment in four-year computer science programs rose by 7.8% in spring 2022, after registering strong growth throughout the pandemic. Students appear hungry to imbibe the digital skills that will help them get tech jobs. When colleges can provide that, they're enrolling.