Being confident of our data
Starting in 2019 with slanted bar charts, the DBIR has tried to make the point that the only certain thing about information security is that nothing is certain. Even with all the data we have, we’ll never know anything with absolute certainty. However, instead of throwing our hands up and complaining that it is impossible to measure anything in a data-poor environment or, worse yet, just plain making stuff up, we get to work. This year, you’ll continue to see the team representing uncertainty throughout the report figures.
The examples shown in Figures 1, 2, 3 and 4 all convey the range of realities that could credibly be true. Whether it be the slant of the bar chart, the threads of the spaghetti chart, the dots of the dot plot or the color of the pictogram plot, all convey the uncertainty of our industry in their own special way.
Much like the slanted bar chart, the spaghetti chart represents the same concept: the possible values that exist within the confidence interval; however, it’s slightly more involved because we have the added element of time. The individual threads represent a sample of all possible connections between the points that exists within each observation’s confidence interval. As you can see, some of the threads are looser than others, indicating a wider confidence internal and a smaller sample size.
The slanted bar chart will be familiar to returning readers. The slant on the bar chart represents the uncertainty of that data point to a 95% confidence level (which is standard for statistical testing).
In layman’s terms, if the slanted areas of two (or more) bars overlap, you can’t really say one is bigger than the other without angering the math gods.